Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-06-04

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-24) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-24 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-24 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-24 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-24 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-24 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-24)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-24) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan	704 (639 – 778)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	29 (18 – 82)
Algeria	137 (114 – 158)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-22 (-590 – -11)
Andorra	13 (5 – 19)	Increasing	2.1 (1.2 – 3.1)	3 (1.7 – 12)
Argentina	751 (674 – 819)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	30 (18 – 81)
Armenia	387 (341 – 430)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	35 (17 – -1900)
Australia	15 (7 – 22)	Unsure	1.2 (0.8 – 1.6)	14 (4.4 – -11)
Austria	28 (19 – 38)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-27 (16 – -7.3)
Azerbaijan	216 (191 – 243)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (9.5 – 46)
Bahrain	422 (357 – 475)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (9.6 – 29)
Bangladesh	2302 (2065 – 2543)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	18 (14 – 24)
Belarus	937 (847 – 1013)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	120 (36 – -94)
Belgium	176 (146 – 199)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-22 (-160 – -12)
Benin	10 (2 – 17)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.5)	-630 (5.4 – -5.2)
Bolivia	564 (505 – 617)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (11 – 25)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	19 (10 – 27)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.4)	30 (5.8 – -9.5)
Brazil	23638 (21817 – 25375)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	20 (17 – 24)
Bulgaria	13 (6 – 19)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.5 – 1.1)	-12 (15 – -4.3)
Cameroon	203 (175 – 229)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-88 (28 – -17)
Canada	879 (812 – 954)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-41 (-180 – -23)
Central African Republic	72 (56 – 87)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	14 (7.2 – 3600)
Chad	18 (10 – 26)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.2)	-25 (11 – -5.7)
Chile	4611 (4248 – 4965)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.1)	32 (25 – 46)
China	9 (4 – 15)	Unsure	1.3 (0.7 – 1.8)	12 (3.4 – -7.8)
Colombia	1299 (1180 – 1426)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (12 – 21)
Cote dIvoire	77 (60 – 93)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	16 (7.5 – -220)
Croatia	6 (0 – 15)	Unsure	1.2 (0.2 – 2.2)	12 (1.9 – -3)
Cuba	23 (13 – 32)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.9 – 1.7)	9 (4.1 – -35)
Czechia	47 (33 – 58)	Unsure	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-31 (21 – -9)
Democratic Republic of the Congo	116 (97 – 135)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	250 (18 – -21)
Denmark	46 (32 – 57)	Unsure	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-37 (19 – -9.4)
Djibouti	176 (149 – 197)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	20 (10 – 340)
Dominican Republic	365 (325 – 404)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	38 (18 – -270)
Ecuador	428 (370 – 479)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-98 (42 – -22)
Egypt	1282 (1135 – 1410)	Increasing	1.2 (1.2 – 1.3)	12 (9.9 – 16)
El Salvador	88 (69 – 105)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	89 (14 – -20)
Equatorial Guinea	47 (32 – 60)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	-120 (11 – -9.1)
Estonia	11 (3 – 18)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.8)	13 (3.4 – -7.3)
Ethiopia	93 (77 – 112)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.5)	12 (6.8 – 66)
Finland	43 (28 – 56)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	34 (8 – -15)
France	889 (816 – 972)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	9.3 (6.8 – 14)
Gabon	82 (64 – 98)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-24 (54 – -10)
Germany	441 (396 – 480)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-64 (77 – -23)
Ghana	177 (152 – 200)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	30 (13 – -88)
Greece	9 (2 – 18)	Unsure	1.1 (0.5 – 1.7)	29 (3.6 – -4.7)
Guatemala	239 (211 – 264)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-120 (38 – -23)
Guinea	79 (62 – 94)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	440 (16 – -17)
Guinea Bissau	30 (17 – 40)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	23 (6.1 – -14)
Haiti	190 (163 – 214)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	10 (6.8 – 19)
Honduras	163 (136 – 185)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-28 (150 – -13)
Hungary	23 (13 – 32)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-43 (9.6 – -6.6)
Iceland	6 (0 – 15)	Likely increasing	2.4 (0.3 – 4.3)	2.1 (1 – -3.8)
India	8307 (7522 – 8928)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	21 (18 – 26)
Indonesia	637 (572 – 696)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	-440 (44 – -37)
Iran	2664 (2394 – 2907)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	25 (18 – 41)
Iraq	354 (317 – 388)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.4)	12 (8.3 – 21)
Ireland	50 (35 – 62)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 1)	-21 (36 – -8.1)
Israel	84 (63 – 104)	Increasing	1.6 (1.3 – 1.9)	5.1 (3.6 – 9.1)
Italy	431 (389 – 471)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-23 (-63 – -14)
Japan	51 (36 – 64)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	18 (7.2 – -33)
Kazakhstan	380 (337 – 422)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	33 (17 – 960)
Kenya	101 (80 – 117)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	15 (7.8 – 280)
Kosovo	8 (1 – 14)	Unsure	1 (0.4 – 1.6)	-30 (4.6 – -3.5)
Kuwait	896 (817 – 994)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	81 (28 – -94)
Kyrgyzstan	51 (38 – 66)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	25 (8 – -22)
Latvia	6 (1 – 10)	Unsure	1 (0.4 – 1.7)	-230 (3.8 – -3.8)
Lebanon	19 (10 – 27)	Unsure	1 (0.6 – 1.2)	-18 (12 – -5.1)
Lithuania	9 (2 – 15)	Unsure	1 (0.5 – 1.4)	-33 (5.7 – -4.3)
Luxembourg	8 (1 – 16)	Unsure	1.2 (0.5 – 1.9)	15 (2.9 – -5)
Madagascar	42 (28 – 53)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	35 (8.4 – -16)
Malawi	37 (24 – 48)	Increasing	1.5 (1.1 – 1.9)	6.1 (3.6 – 23)
Malaysia	56 (39 – 70)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-21 (34 – -8.1)
Maldives	66 (48 – 83)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	15 (6.9 – -70)
Mali	39 (25 – 49)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	21 (6.9 – -19)
Mauritania	58 (42 – 70)	Increasing	1.4 (1.1 – 1.6)	8.7 (5 – 35)
Mexico	3391 (3133 – 3640)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.1)	32 (24 – 48)
Moldova	169 (144 – 190)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	42 (15 – -49)
Mongolia	10 (2 – 16)	Likely increasing	1.5 (0.7 – 2.3)	4.3 (2 – -28)
Morocco	46 (31 – 57)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 1)	-13 (-1700 – -6.2)
Nepal	187 (160 – 210)	Increasing	1.4 (1.2 – 1.6)	7.1 (5.1 – 12)
Netherlands	161 (135 – 183)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-65 (38 – -17)
New Zealand	6 (0 – 12)	Likely increasing	1.8 (0.4 – 3.3)	4.1 (1.4 – -4.3)
Niger	5 (0 – 10)	Unsure	1 (0.2 – 1.7)	-18 (3.2 – -2.4)
Nigeria	365 (322 – 410)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	21 (13 – 59)
North Macedonia	55 (40 – 68)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	9.4 (5.3 – 43)
Norway	13 (6 – 19)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.3)	-42 (8.1 – -5.9)
Oman	676 (588 – 770)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	10 (8 – 14)
Pakistan	3070 (2693 – 3410)	Increasing	1.2 (1.2 – 1.3)	13 (11 – 18)
Palestine	8 (1 – 16)	Unsure	1.3 (0.5 – 2)	17 (2.7 – -4.1)
Panama	392 (345 – 440)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	12 (8.6 – 20)
Paraguay	23 (12 – 32)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.9 – 1.7)	8.1 (3.8 – -48)
Peru	5992 (5633 – 6361)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	19 (15 – 25)
Philippines	630 (560 – 703)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.5)	8 (6.3 – 11)
Poland	354 (315 – 388)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-110 (51 – -25)
Portugal	273 (237 – 305)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	33 (15 – -240)
Puerto Rico	87 (69 – 105)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	67 (13 – -22)
Qatar	1949 (1781 – 2079)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	33 (23 – 57)
Romania	165 (139 – 188)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-3100 (23 – -22)
Russia	9342 (8653 – 9922)	Increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	68 (44 – 160)
Saudi Arabia	1888 (1736 – 2034)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-33 (-79 – -21)
Senegal	95 (78 – 114)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	37 (11 – -31)
Serbia	35 (22 – 45)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 0.9)	-8.9 (-38 – -5)
Sierra Leone	22 (13 – 29)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.1)	-19 (18 – -6)
Singapore	513 (451 – 567)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	120 (29 – -57)
Slovakia	7 (0 – 14)	Unsure	1.4 (0.4 – 2.3)	6.9 (2.1 – -5.3)
Somalia	56 (43 – 70)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	11 (5.8 – 180)
South Africa	1647 (1486 – 1792)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (12 – 19)
South Korea	46 (33 – 58)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.5)	11 (5.5 – -440)
South Sudan	81 (63 – 95)	Increasing	1.4 (1.1 – 1.6)	7.9 (4.8 – 22)
Spain	541 (493 – 584)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-36 (-240 – -20)
Sri Lanka	51 (35 – 65)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.3)	73 (9.5 – -13)
Sudan	188 (163 – 211)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-250 (27 – -22)
Sweden	605 (538 – 661)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	31 (17 – 140)
Switzerland	18 (9 – 24)	Unsure	1 (0.6 – 1.3)	-81 (8.2 – -6.6)
Tajikistan	129 (107 – 150)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-17 (-72 – -9.4)
Thailand	12 (2 – 21)	Likely increasing	1.6 (0.8 – 2.4)	5 (2.2 – -20)
Tunisia	8 (1 – 13)	Likely increasing	1.6 (0.7 – 2.4)	5.2 (2.2 – -11)
Turkey	1014 (937 – 1091)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	300 (48 – -73)
Uganda	36 (21 – 47)	Likely increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.6)	11 (5 – -100)
Ukraine	482 (423 – 542)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	23 (14 – 72)
United Arab Emirates	714 (656 – 772)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-48 (1700 – -24)
United Kingdom	2061 (1937 – 2183)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-56 (-280 – -31)
United Republic of Tanzania	10 (4 – 15)	Decreasing	0.7 (0.4 – 1)	-8.7 (29 – -3.8)
United States of America	22476 (20877 – 24026)	Increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	83 (45 – 540)
Uzbekistan	68 (49 – 84)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	66 (12 – -18)
Venezuela	90 (71 – 106)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	22 (9.1 – -51)
Zambia	21 (13 – 29)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.6 – 1.1)	-26 (12 – -6.4)
Zimbabwe	21 (11 – 30)	Likely increasing	1.4 (0.9 – 1.9)	7.2 (3.5 – -110)