Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-06-04

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-24) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-24 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-24 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-24 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-24 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-24 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-24)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-24) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 704 (639 – 778) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 29 (18 – 82)
Algeria 137 (114 – 158) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -22 (-590 – -11)
Andorra 13 (5 – 19) Increasing 2.1 (1.2 – 3.1) 3 (1.7 – 12)
Argentina 751 (674 – 819) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 30 (18 – 81)
Armenia 387 (341 – 430) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 35 (17 – -1900)
Australia 15 (7 – 22) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 14 (4.4 – -11)
Austria 28 (19 – 38) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -27 (16 – -7.3)
Azerbaijan 216 (191 – 243) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (9.5 – 46)
Bahrain 422 (357 – 475) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (9.6 – 29)
Bangladesh 2302 (2065 – 2543) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (14 – 24)
Belarus 937 (847 – 1013) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 120 (36 – -94)
Belgium 176 (146 – 199) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -22 (-160 – -12)
Benin 10 (2 – 17) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) -630 (5.4 – -5.2)
Bolivia 564 (505 – 617) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (11 – 25)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 19 (10 – 27) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 30 (5.8 – -9.5)
Brazil 23638 (21817 – 25375) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (17 – 24)
Bulgaria 13 (6 – 19) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.1) -12 (15 – -4.3)
Cameroon 203 (175 – 229) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -88 (28 – -17)
Canada 879 (812 – 954) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -41 (-180 – -23)
Central African Republic 72 (56 – 87) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 14 (7.2 – 3600)
Chad 18 (10 – 26) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -25 (11 – -5.7)
Chile 4611 (4248 – 4965) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 32 (25 – 46)
China 9 (4 – 15) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.8) 12 (3.4 – -7.8)
Colombia 1299 (1180 – 1426) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (12 – 21)
Cote dIvoire 77 (60 – 93) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 16 (7.5 – -220)
Croatia 6 (0 – 15) Unsure 1.2 (0.2 – 2.2) 12 (1.9 – -3)
Cuba 23 (13 – 32) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 9 (4.1 – -35)
Czechia 47 (33 – 58) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -31 (21 – -9)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 116 (97 – 135) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 250 (18 – -21)
Denmark 46 (32 – 57) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -37 (19 – -9.4)
Djibouti 176 (149 – 197) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 20 (10 – 340)
Dominican Republic 365 (325 – 404) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 38 (18 – -270)
Ecuador 428 (370 – 479) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -98 (42 – -22)
Egypt 1282 (1135 – 1410) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 12 (9.9 – 16)
El Salvador 88 (69 – 105) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 89 (14 – -20)
Equatorial Guinea 47 (32 – 60) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) -120 (11 – -9.1)
Estonia 11 (3 – 18) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 13 (3.4 – -7.3)
Ethiopia 93 (77 – 112) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 12 (6.8 – 66)
Finland 43 (28 – 56) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 34 (8 – -15)
France 889 (816 – 972) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 9.3 (6.8 – 14)
Gabon 82 (64 – 98) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -24 (54 – -10)
Germany 441 (396 – 480) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -64 (77 – -23)
Ghana 177 (152 – 200) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 30 (13 – -88)
Greece 9 (2 – 18) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.7) 29 (3.6 – -4.7)
Guatemala 239 (211 – 264) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -120 (38 – -23)
Guinea 79 (62 – 94) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 440 (16 – -17)
Guinea Bissau 30 (17 – 40) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 23 (6.1 – -14)
Haiti 190 (163 – 214) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 10 (6.8 – 19)
Honduras 163 (136 – 185) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -28 (150 – -13)
Hungary 23 (13 – 32) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -43 (9.6 – -6.6)
Iceland 6 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 2.4 (0.3 – 4.3) 2.1 (1 – -3.8)
India 8307 (7522 – 8928) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (18 – 26)
Indonesia 637 (572 – 696) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) -440 (44 – -37)
Iran 2664 (2394 – 2907) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 25 (18 – 41)
Iraq 354 (317 – 388) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (8.3 – 21)
Ireland 50 (35 – 62) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -21 (36 – -8.1)
Israel 84 (63 – 104) Increasing 1.6 (1.3 – 1.9) 5.1 (3.6 – 9.1)
Italy 431 (389 – 471) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -23 (-63 – -14)
Japan 51 (36 – 64) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 18 (7.2 – -33)
Kazakhstan 380 (337 – 422) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 33 (17 – 960)
Kenya 101 (80 – 117) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 15 (7.8 – 280)
Kosovo 8 (1 – 14) Unsure 1 (0.4 – 1.6) -30 (4.6 – -3.5)
Kuwait 896 (817 – 994) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 81 (28 – -94)
Kyrgyzstan 51 (38 – 66) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 25 (8 – -22)
Latvia 6 (1 – 10) Unsure 1 (0.4 – 1.7) -230 (3.8 – -3.8)
Lebanon 19 (10 – 27) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.2) -18 (12 – -5.1)
Lithuania 9 (2 – 15) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.4) -33 (5.7 – -4.3)
Luxembourg 8 (1 – 16) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 1.9) 15 (2.9 – -5)
Madagascar 42 (28 – 53) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 35 (8.4 – -16)
Malawi 37 (24 – 48) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 6.1 (3.6 – 23)
Malaysia 56 (39 – 70) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -21 (34 – -8.1)
Maldives 66 (48 – 83) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 15 (6.9 – -70)
Mali 39 (25 – 49) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 21 (6.9 – -19)
Mauritania 58 (42 – 70) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 8.7 (5 – 35)
Mexico 3391 (3133 – 3640) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 32 (24 – 48)
Moldova 169 (144 – 190) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 42 (15 – -49)
Mongolia 10 (2 – 16) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.7 – 2.3) 4.3 (2 – -28)
Morocco 46 (31 – 57) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -13 (-1700 – -6.2)
Nepal 187 (160 – 210) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 7.1 (5.1 – 12)
Netherlands 161 (135 – 183) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -65 (38 – -17)
New Zealand 6 (0 – 12) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.4 – 3.3) 4.1 (1.4 – -4.3)
Niger 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1 (0.2 – 1.7) -18 (3.2 – -2.4)
Nigeria 365 (322 – 410) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 21 (13 – 59)
North Macedonia 55 (40 – 68) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 9.4 (5.3 – 43)
Norway 13 (6 – 19) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -42 (8.1 – -5.9)
Oman 676 (588 – 770) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (8 – 14)
Pakistan 3070 (2693 – 3410) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 13 (11 – 18)
Palestine 8 (1 – 16) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2) 17 (2.7 – -4.1)
Panama 392 (345 – 440) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (8.6 – 20)
Paraguay 23 (12 – 32) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 8.1 (3.8 – -48)
Peru 5992 (5633 – 6361) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 19 (15 – 25)
Philippines 630 (560 – 703) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 8 (6.3 – 11)
Poland 354 (315 – 388) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -110 (51 – -25)
Portugal 273 (237 – 305) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 33 (15 – -240)
Puerto Rico 87 (69 – 105) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 67 (13 – -22)
Qatar 1949 (1781 – 2079) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 33 (23 – 57)
Romania 165 (139 – 188) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -3100 (23 – -22)
Russia 9342 (8653 – 9922) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 68 (44 – 160)
Saudi Arabia 1888 (1736 – 2034) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -33 (-79 – -21)
Senegal 95 (78 – 114) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 37 (11 – -31)
Serbia 35 (22 – 45) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 0.9) -8.9 (-38 – -5)
Sierra Leone 22 (13 – 29) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -19 (18 – -6)
Singapore 513 (451 – 567) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 120 (29 – -57)
Slovakia 7 (0 – 14) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.3) 6.9 (2.1 – -5.3)
Somalia 56 (43 – 70) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 11 (5.8 – 180)
South Africa 1647 (1486 – 1792) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (12 – 19)
South Korea 46 (33 – 58) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 11 (5.5 – -440)
South Sudan 81 (63 – 95) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 7.9 (4.8 – 22)
Spain 541 (493 – 584) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -36 (-240 – -20)
Sri Lanka 51 (35 – 65) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 73 (9.5 – -13)
Sudan 188 (163 – 211) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -250 (27 – -22)
Sweden 605 (538 – 661) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 31 (17 – 140)
Switzerland 18 (9 – 24) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.3) -81 (8.2 – -6.6)
Tajikistan 129 (107 – 150) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -17 (-72 – -9.4)
Thailand 12 (2 – 21) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.8 – 2.4) 5 (2.2 – -20)
Tunisia 8 (1 – 13) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.7 – 2.4) 5.2 (2.2 – -11)
Turkey 1014 (937 – 1091) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) 300 (48 – -73)
Uganda 36 (21 – 47) Likely increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 11 (5 – -100)
Ukraine 482 (423 – 542) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 23 (14 – 72)
United Arab Emirates 714 (656 – 772) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -48 (1700 – -24)
United Kingdom 2061 (1937 – 2183) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -56 (-280 – -31)
United Republic of Tanzania 10 (4 – 15) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -8.7 (29 – -3.8)
United States of America 22476 (20877 – 24026) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 83 (45 – 540)
Uzbekistan 68 (49 – 84) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 66 (12 – -18)
Venezuela 90 (71 – 106) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 22 (9.1 – -51)
Zambia 21 (13 – 29) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -26 (12 – -6.4)
Zimbabwe 21 (11 – 30) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 1.9) 7.2 (3.5 – -110)